29 July 2010 -- A new report from the North American Electric Reliability Corp. examines the possible effects of climate change initiatives on bulk power generation and finds that “substantial changes” likely will need to be made, including adding new or upgraded low-carbon generation and transmission, expanding demand resources and changing processes and approaches used in system planning and operations.
The report, “Reliability Impacts of Climate Change Initiatives: Technology Assessment and Scenario Development,” said a large number of coal unit retirements could occur between 2020 and 2030. The effect would be to challenge reliability, especially in the Midwest, unless the retired capacity is offset with low-carbon-emitting generation or sufficient quantities of demand-side management.
As mid-century approaches, the report said continued change in the North American fuel mix could require “substantial quantities” of new low-carbon resources to replace still more retirements of fossil-fired units not fitted with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. In the 2030 to 2050 timeframe, the NERC report said natural gas units without CCS may no longer be viable, increasing the need for non-emitting resources.
Introducing an array of existing and new technologies (for example, coal and natural gas plants with CCS, large energy storage units, large-scale integration of demand response, power electronics, variable renewable generation and electric vehicles) is possible between 2020 and 2050. But the report said their implementation hinges on “substantial technological development” and their effects on bulk power system reliability.
The NERC report said that if the necessary resources are not operational in a timely manner, experience with the new resource mix may be insufficient. That either could affect reliability or require moderating climate change goals.
The assessment stems from November 2008 when NERC began to seek stakeholder advice on how climate change initiatives could affect the bulk power system’s reliability. NERC’s Reliability Impacts of Climate Change Initiatives Task Force (RICCITF) was created and charged with assessing reliability considerations of climate change initiatives, supply resource responses, fuel mix changes and associated technologies. These technologies included large-scale integration of smart grids, integration of renewable, nuclear and energy storage resources. The U.S. Waxman-Markey bill and the Canadian/U.S. agreement to meet 17 percent reductions below the 2005 base-year by 2020 as part of their participation in the Copenhagen Accords formed the basis for the report’s assessment.
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